The battle over WA’s undecided voters is about to intensify, with a new opinion poll predicting a 14 per cent swing against Labor will carve a path for a dozen new Liberal MPs to enter State Parliament.
If that swing is replicated Statewide, 11 Labor MPs would lose their seats, erasing surprise 2021 gains, but the Cook Government would still retain power with numbers closer to the 2017 Mark McGowan-led victory.
The Demos AU survey of 948 voters found Roger Cook is maintaining a lead as preferred premier, 46 per cent to Libby Mettam’s 34 per cent.
But four months before the State election, 29 per cent of those surveyed could not decide between the two leaders.
“Any election, regardless of the numbers that you start with, will be a tight contest,” Mr Cook said on Monday.
“I’m not taking anything for granted. I’m continuing to rely on my team; stay humble and listen.”
According to the Demos AU result, Labor’s primary vote fell from a record 59.9 per cent to 41 per cent, just under the 42 per cent that secured a sweeping victory in 2017.
The swing votes flowed to the Liberals, with a 34 per cent primary vote, and the Greens, with 12 per cent.
“Conversely, this poll shows no real movement for the Nationals despite being offered as a Statewide option due to running Lower House candidates in metropolitan Perth,” Demos AU head of research George Hasanakos said.
Labor was ahead in all demographics but polled strongest among 35-54-year-olds.
“State Labor is doing better than usual for a centre-left party with voters over 35 years of age,” Mr Hasanakos said.
“With State Labor attracting support from one out of eight Federal Coalition voters, the Cook Government is still attracting support from across the political spectrum even though the 2021 COVID election is now a distant memory.”
The poll found the Albanese Government’s lead was much slimmer, dependent on Greens preferences for a 52-48 two-party preferred advantage.
In the preferred prime minister stakes, Anthony Albanese was ahead of Peter Dutton 40-33, with 27 per cent of voters unsure.
A 3 per cent swing towards the Coalition would put Tangney and the new seat of Bullwinkel in the balance, but Labor would hold the other WA seats it won in 2022.
