In Summary
- Al-Shabab has reversed all progress made by the Somali National Army in the past two years, now aligning with Yemen’s Houthi militants.
- The Houthis have increased their attacks on maritime vessels, posing greater threats to international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
- U.S. efforts to block weapon flows into Somalia have been challenged by ongoing smuggling operations, which now potentially include support from Iran to al-Shabab through the Houthis.
- Corruption and poor leadership within the Somali National Army have contributed to its inability to maintain territorial gains against al-Shabab.
- The new alliance between al-Shabab and the Houthis signals an escalating security threat, necessitating continued international support for Somali forces.
DETAILS
Mogadishu, Somalia– Al-Shabab militants have managed to nullify all territorial gains made by the Somali National Army over the past two years. This resurgence is partly due to a new and concerning alliance with the Houthi militant group in Yemen, senior U.S. defense officials revealed under conditions of anonymity.
This emerging partnership between al-Shabab and the Houthis, which was unexpected to many observers, has amplified threats in the region, especially in maritime zones. According to Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh, there have been more than 190 hostile actions by the Houthis against U.S. Navy and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since late last year. Recent attacks include severe damages to vessels and injuries to crew members, highlighting the increasing danger in these waters.
The motivations behind the Houthi’s actions, as explained by Singh, seem rooted in a desire to assert their support for the Palestinians in Gaza, although their aggressive tactics have broadly targeted international shipping unrelated to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This has raised significant concerns about the broader objectives and stability in the region.
Guled Ahmed from the Middle East Institute pointed out that the collaboration might be backed by Iran, aiming to open a new front in the Indian Ocean. This partnership could potentially equip al-Shabab with advanced weaponry, including missiles and drones, increasing the group’s operational capabilities significantly.
The United States has been actively trying to stem the flow of arms into Somalia to curb such militant enhancements. In November 2022, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on individuals and a company involved in smuggling arms between Yemen and Somalia, which inadvertently also supplied al-Shabab.
Meanwhile, the internal challenges faced by the Somali National Army have exacerbated the situation. Issues such as corruption, poor military strategy, and inexperienced commanders have hindered effective resistance against al-Shabab, which has grown to a strength of 12,000 to 13,000 fighters. The situation was further aggravated by a diplomatic memorandum between Ethiopia and Somaliland, inadvertently boosting recruitment for al-Shabab among those opposed to Ethiopian influence.
As the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) approaches its conclusion, there is a pressing need for sustained support for Somali forces. U.S. defense officials emphasize the critical juncture at which Somalia now stands, requiring substantial international assistance to address the escalating security challenges posed by the strengthened al-Shabab and their new allies.
